How this works

Calibrated is an information service — it analyses and explains esports matches, and never accepts, places, or brokers a bet. For each upcoming CS2 match we publish a calibrated probability and the factors driving it. The model is trained blind to betting markets and scored in the open: our headline number is the Brier score (calibration), not accuracy.

We are honest about what we don't know. Matches without enough history are marked thin (shown with a caveat, kept out of the headline metric) or withheld (no probability published at all). When a pick carries a prediction commitment, a SHA-256 hash was fixed before lock — tamper-evident against our own pipeline, so it can't be changed after. An external timestamp anchor isn't built yet, so pre-match timing isn't independently verifiable.